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February 05, 2008
Thoughts and Predictions - Toyota
Seems like everyone is making their predictions about what the 2008 season has in store for the various teams and drivers, so I figure I might as well get into the act too. I'll take a look at each manufacturer's Cup teams in a separate entry, then maybe do an entry for the Nationwide and Truck Series as well.
Michael Waltrip Racing- I figure I'll start with my personal favorite organization. I feel very optimistic that Michael is going to surprise some who have written him off as being done as a driver - in the races that he was able to qualify for last season he showed that he can still race up front at restrictor plate tracks, and is capable of solid finishes at other tracks. I believe Michael will contend for wins at the four restrictor plate tracks and his results overall will improve but it all depends on how competitive the cars are that MWR are fielding this season. David Reutimann will continue to be consistently good for MWR. He's shown he can race up front in every series he's raced in when he has a good car - we may see a lot of that this season from David, again depending on how good his cars are. There's no question in my mind that in the Nationwide Series David will once again contend for the Championship and will hopefully win it! Dale Jarrett and his team will likely be highly motivated to improve on their results from last season so that DJ retires on a high note but I'm not expecting a trip to Victory Lane before he steps out of the car. While everyone seems to think very highly of Michael McDowell's ability behind the wheel and there's no question he has talent, I'm a bit concerned about how things are going to work out for him in the #00 - it's a big jump from ARCA to Cup. Sponsorship has to be a concern as well - if MWR can't find a sponsor for the #00 how might that effect their ability to give McD a competitive car?
Of course I'm biased because I'm such a big fan of Michael's but overall I believe MWR is going to show a significant amount of improvement between last season and this. MWR has added a lot of good personnel on the competitive and management sides including Cal Wells and Dr. Eric Warren. Ryan Pemberton and Paul Andrews as crew chiefs for David Reutimann and Michael Waltrip respectively should be assets as well. While test results aren't really all that meaningful, it's still a positive sign that the MWR teams had more speed in pre-season testing this year than at the same tests last season - that's an indication that they've made progress that will hopefully translate into improved competitiveness on the track. Michael is very determined to show that he can be successful as an owner and I think this season he and MWR both will not only start to achieve that success but show that they have a long-term future in this sport.
Joe Gibbs Racing - As much as I'd like to see a MWR driver get Toyota their first Cup win, I suspect it's likely to come from a JGR driver and it probably won't take long. JGR is likely to be just as successful affiliated with Toyota as they were with Chevy - this is an established organization that knows what it takes to field competitive cars and their drivers are extremely talented. JGR will help the other Toyota organizations not only via information sharing and with the shocks project they're all working together on, but also because all the expectations and attention will be focused on them which should take some of the pressure off of the other teams.
Any of the JGR Cup drivers are capable of contending for wins on a weekly basis and with luck on their side all three could make the Chase. That is, if none of them trip themselves up. All three are among the most talented drivers in the garage area but both Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch are also among the most volatile, and Denny Hamlin has let his emotions get the best of him in the past as well. Tony can't seem to go more than a couple of months before he's ripping a fellow competitor - sometimes even a teammate, tangling with the media or angering Nascar. Questions about whether Tony is going to sign an extension to his contract with JGR could end up being a distraction as well.
Hall of Fame Racing - An association with JGR should help, as will that they are starting the season in the top 35 in owner's points, but HoF is still a one-car team with a driver whose results have been unimpressive in Cup so far. J.J. Yeley will have to race well consistently throughout the season. J.J. hasn't been in Cup for long so he may be still developing as a Cup driver, but I don't anticipate we'll be seeing him contend for wins too often. HoF will be fielding a second Cup car at selected races for Brad Coleman, who I suspect could turn into a more successful Cup driver than J.J. one day.
Red Bull Racing - Another organization that I think will show a lot of improvement over last season. While RBR hasn't seemed to have made as many changes as MWR has, they have added some key personnel and like MWR they had very positive tests last month. I think Brian Vickers could be another driver like Michael who shows significant improvement over last season, particularly when once considers in the races that he was able to qualify for he often raced in the top 10 or top 15. I'm not sure we'll see quite as much improvement from A.J. Allmendinger since he doesn't have as much experience as Brian does - racing every weekend would help him a lot but it remains to be seen as to whether he'll be able to qualify for every race this season. If A.J. doesn't improve over last season there could be a driver change at some point - RBR is backing Scott Speed in an ARCA car this season so he could be waiting in the wings to take over for A.J.
Bill Davis Racing - I think BDR's problems are often overlooked by the fact that they have so much success in the Truck Series and because Dave Blaney was Toyota's most successful Cup driver last season. As an established organization that isn't new to fielding Cup teams BDR should have been better than they were last season, even though it was Toyota's first season in Cup and there were issues to deal with in relation to that. There are major questions as to whether BDR will be able to field two cars for the whole season to the point where Jacques Villeneuve may have to pay the costs of his car out of his own pocket. Many are expecting a breakout season for Dave in 2008 but given BDR's struggles for a few years now I don't expect to see him racing up front as much as his fans would like. Though test results don't provide a true picture of how a team's season is going to go, it's not a good sign that they struggled to find speed at times during testing last month. That could be an especially big problem for JV since he will have to qualify for races on time. Although some liked what they saw from JV in the truck and Cup races he was in, I was unimpressed and I'm particularly concerned that it seemed as if he caused a few incidents in a truck race or two, likely because of his inexperience. If BDR can't give him competitive cars and he struggles his time in Cup could be a short-lived disaster.
Overall, Toyota should have a lot more success in the Cup Series than they did last year. I'm not convinced that they'll dominate the series like Chevy did last season which is what some fans seem to think is going to happen but I do think that adding JGR will help get them to Victory Lane pretty quickly.
Posted by silverdsl at February 5, 2008 03:42 PM